A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
